SCHD's Q3 2026 distribution should go ex-dividend on September 23 and pay on September 28. Until Schwab declares it, all anyone has is a model. Here is ours, with the work shown.
🆕 What changed since we published
The single biggest open question on this page has been answered. On August 27, Altria's board raised the regular quarterly dividend 4.7% to $1.11 from $1.06, taking the annualized rate to $4.44. The record date is September 15, which puts it eight days ahead of SCHD's expected ex-date. We have folded it into the models below and our estimate moves from $0.2735 to $0.2740.
📋 The inputs
Last payout: $0.2525 (Q2 2026)
Same quarter last year: $0.2604 (Q3 2025)
All-time quarterly high: $0.2782 (Q4 2025)
Q3 dividend actions: 16 holdings raised, 2 cut
Still open: the index rebalances in September, and collection timing on several raises is unconfirmed
Up 5.22% year over year. Up 8.51% from Q2. Four tenths of a cent short of a record.
That range is tighter than the $0.2650 to $0.2825 band we published on September 2. A known raise is worth more than an unknown one, and with $MO on the board the low end no longer has to account for Altria staying flat.
How We Got There
Three independent methods, run separately and then compared. They landed within half a cent of each other, which is the only reason we are comfortable putting a number on the page.
Our call sits above the simple average of the three, and that is deliberate. Models 1 and 2 both anchor on the same normalized base, so they are not truly independent of each other. Model 3 is the one built from a different direction entirely, and $MO's confirmed raise makes its +3% full-year assumption easier to defend than it was a week ago.
Model 1: Weight the raises properly
This is the step most people skip, and it changes the conclusion. A raise only matters to SCHD in proportion to how much of the fund that company represents. Multiply weight by raise, sum across all sixteen, subtract the cuts.
| Company | Weight | Raise | Income Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone $BX | 2.74% | +11.2% | +0.307% |
| Altria $MO NEW | 2.68% | +4.7% | +0.126% |
| Fastenal $FAST | 1.45% | +8.3% | +0.120% |
| Regions Financial $RF | 0.67% | +13.2% | +0.088% |
| Broadridge $BR | 0.49% | +11.8% | +0.058% |
| Darden $DRI | 0.63% | +8.0% | +0.050% |
| Target $TGT | 1.74% | +1.8% | +0.031% |
| Other 9 raisers | 1.38% | +1.4% to +5.0% | +0.042% |
| Skyworks $SWKS | 0.26% | Suspended | −0.260% |
| Wendy's $WEN | 0.03% | −50% | −0.015% |
| Net effect on collected income | +0.55% | ||
Weights from Schwab's official holdings file dated August 13, 2026. Income impact is weight multiplied by raise, an approximation that assumes comparable yields across holdings. $MO is rank 18 in the fund, not a top-10 position.
⚠️ Read that bottom row again
Sixteen raises, headlines as big as +13.2%, and the whole wave nets to +0.55% after $SWKS goes to zero. $BX alone still contributes more than any two others combined. Altria's arrival helped, moving the net from +0.42% to +0.55%, but the raises are still not what moves this quarter.
🧮 Why the weight-only method understates $MO
Weight times raise treats every holding as if it yields the same. Altria does not. At $4.44 annualized against a $69.12 close, $MO yields roughly 6.4% while SCHD yields around 3.9%. That means $MO supplies closer to 4.4% of the fund's income despite a 2.68% weight.
Run it that way and Altria's raise is worth about +0.21%, not +0.126%, which makes it the single largest contributor in the table and lifts the net to roughly +0.63%. We show the weight-only figure for consistency with the rest of the column and split the difference in the model.
Applying the net raise effect to a normalized base of $0.2708 gives $0.2724.
Does the $MO raise even land in Q3?
This is the question that decides whether Altria matters at all this quarter, and the dates are genuinely tight.
| Event | Date | Inside SCHD's Q3? |
|---|---|---|
| $MO declares +4.7% | August 27, 2026 | Yes |
| $MO record date | September 15, 2026 | Yes, by 8 days |
| SCHD expected ex-date | September 23, 2026 | — |
| SCHD expected pay date | September 28, 2026 | — |
| $MO cash actually paid | October 9, 2026 | No, 11 days late |
SCHD dates are expectations based on the fund's normal schedule and are not confirmed by Schwab.
The income accrues inside the window. Altria goes ex on September 15, well before SCHD's September 23 ex-date, so the fund books the higher dividend as a receivable during Q3.
The complication is that the cash does not arrive until October 9, after SCHD is scheduled to have already paid out. Funds generally distribute net investment income including accrued receivables, which is why we are counting it. If Schwab instead works from cash actually collected, the entire Altria contribution slides into the December distribution and our estimate is about half a cent too high.
Model 2: Normalize the Q2 drag
SCHD paid $0.2525 in Q2 2026 against $0.2602 a year earlier, a 3.0% decline while its holdings were collectively raising. That should not happen in a normal quarter.
The cause was share creation timing. A wave of new SCHD shares was created late in Q2, after many holdings had already gone ex-dividend. Those shares shared in the distribution without having been present to collect the income behind it. If holdings were growing dividends around 4%, Q2 should have printed near $0.2706. It printed $0.2525, implying a 6.7% drag.
Apply that same 4% organic growth to Q3 2025's $0.2604 and a clean quarter gives $0.2708. That figure is a base assumption rather than a raise-by-raise build, so Altria's announcement does not move it. It is the floor the other models push up from.
This is also why a big jump from Q2 is plausible without anything dramatic happening. The $0.2525 base is artificially low, so any recovery looks large in percentage terms.
Model 3: Back-solve from the full year
SCHD paid $1.0476 across 2025. First half 2026 came in at $0.5094 against $0.5090 a year prior, essentially flat.
| FY2026 Growth | Full Year | Implied H2 Growth | Implied Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1% | $1.0581 | +1.9% | $0.2653 |
| +2% | $1.0686 | +3.8% | $0.2703 |
| +3% | $1.0790 | +5.8% | $0.2754 |
| +4% | $1.0895 | +7.7% | $0.2805 |
| +5% | $1.1000 | +9.7% | $0.2855 |
Q3 assumed at 48.35% of the second half, matching the 2025 split. Q4 has been SCHD's largest quarter in each of the last two years.
With a flat first half and dividend growth decelerating from its historical 11% pace, +3% for the year remains the reasonable center. That points to $0.2754. Altria's raise does not change the arithmetic here, but it does make the +3% row more comfortable and puts the +4% row within reach rather than out of it.
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Where everyone landed
Recent Dividend History
| Quarter | Dividend | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.2740 est. | +5.22% est. | Our estimate |
| Q2 2026 | $0.2525 | −3.0% | Share creation drag |
| Q1 2026 | $0.2569 | +3.3% | |
| Q4 2025 | $0.2782 | +5.2% | 🏆 All-time high |
| Q3 2025 | $0.2604 | +3.5% | Comparison quarter |
| Q2 2025 | $0.2602 | −5.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | $0.2488 | +22.1% | |
| Q4 2024 | $0.2645 | +6.9% |
Split-adjusted for the 3-for-1 split on October 10, 2024. The Q3 2026 row is our estimate, not a declared amount.
What could push it higher
- $MO gets yield-adjusted credit. If Schwab's actual collected income reflects Altria's 6.4% yield rather than its 2.68% weight, the raise is worth closer to +0.21% and our number is conservative.
- The Q2 drag fully reverses and those shares are now seasoned and collecting.
- $BX runs hotter than its declared $1.29. It is the largest single lever in the fund.
- The September rebalance rotates weight toward higher yielders ahead of the collection window.
What could push it lower
- $MO's cash arrives October 9. If Schwab distributes on a cash-received basis rather than accrual, Altria contributes nothing to this quarter.
- Inflows keep arriving late. The same problem that caused the Q2 miss has not gone away.
- Collection timing on the rest. Several raises may have ex-dates that fall into Q4 instead.
- Seasonality. Q3 has never been SCHD's biggest quarter.
Track every raise, cut, and special across 139 income ETFs with daily yield and total return history.
Explore Pro Analytics ⭐🚫 What this is not
A modeling exercise for educational purposes, not a forecast to position around. Schwab sets the distribution based on income actually collected, and nobody outside the fund knows it until it is declared. Do not buy, sell, or size a position based on a number on this page.
FAQ
What is the predicted SCHD dividend for Q3 2026?
Our model estimates $0.2740 per share, with a range of $0.2670 to $0.2820. That would be about 5.2% above Q3 2025's $0.2604 and 8.5% above Q2 2026's $0.2525. Schwab sets the actual amount and typically declares in late September.
Did Altria raise its dividend for Q3 2026?
Yes. On August 27, 2026, Altria's board raised the regular quarterly dividend 4.7% to $1.11 from $1.06, taking the annualized rate to $4.44. Record date is September 15, payable October 9. Altria framed it as consistent with its progressive dividend goal of mid-single-digit growth through 2028, and called it the 61st increase in 57 years.
How much does Altria's raise add to SCHD's Q3 payout?
$MO carries a 2.68% weight as of the August 13, 2026 holdings file. Weight times raise gives roughly +0.126% of fund income, second only to $BX. Yield-adjusted for Altria's 6.4% yield against SCHD's roughly 3.9%, the true figure is closer to +0.21%, which would make it the largest single contributor. Either way it is worth about four to six hundredths of a cent per SCHD share.
Does the $MO raise land in Q3 or Q4?
The income accrues in Q3. Altria's September 15 record date beats SCHD's expected September 23 ex-date by eight days. The catch is that the cash is not paid until October 9, after SCHD's expected September 28 pay date. Funds generally distribute net investment income including accrued receivables, so it should count, but a cash-basis treatment would push it to Q4.
Is $MO a top-10 SCHD holding?
No. Altria is rank 18 at a 2.68% weight in the August 13, 2026 holdings file, sitting between Accenture and Qualcomm. It is a meaningful position and the second-largest raise contributor this quarter, but it is not top-10.
How much do the 16 raises actually add?
About +0.82% of fund income before cuts, and roughly +0.55% after $SWKS's suspension and $WEN's 50% cut. Adding Altria lifted the net from +0.42%, which is real, but still not what drives a large quarter-over-quarter move.
Why was Q2 2026 lower than Q2 2025?
Share creation timing. New SCHD shares were created late in the quarter, after many holdings had gone ex-dividend, so they shared in a distribution they had not collected income for. Backing out normal growth implies a 6% to 7% drag.
Would Q3 2026 set a record?
It would need to clear $0.2782 from Q4 2025. Our $0.2740 estimate falls about four tenths of a cent short. SCHD has also never posted its annual high in Q3, so a record means breaking seasonality too.
How does the leaderboard work?
Until Schwab declares, it shows the newest predictions first. Once the real number is known, it re-ranks by who came closest and names a winner.
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